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WHY EVERY RUNNER CAN'T WIN THE STRADBROKE

By Phil Purser
08/06/2012
Photo/caption Phil Purser
La Montagna (pictured) won the 2006 Stradbroke. Can Sea Siren carry 6.5kgs more than La Montagna at the same age - and win a Stradbroke? If she can, the rest of this year's Stradbroke field must be cumulatively a very ordinary bunch.
Let me go through this year’s Stradbroke Handicap and give you a reason why each of the 23 acceptors can’t win. Normally Form Guides give their readers all the positive rot about a runner and don’t mention any of the pertinent and negative points about the runners, so listed below are some pertinent points that I can assure you that you won’t come across in the Form Guide, as they like to think every horse is a winning chance, which is clearly garbage, as in any 18 horse race ever run, unless it is a dead heat, 17 cannot win.
 
 
The key to tomorrow’s Stradbroke will be getting the exact track rating at the time the race is run and determining from earlier races if any pattern has emerged, such as the track on the day suiting frontrunners and so on and so forth.
 
 
The Stradbroke Handicap jumps at 3.40pm local time and is Race 7 of eight on the card.
 
 
Why each horse can’t win the Stradbroke is noted below:
HORSE
COMMENT
BUFFERING
Must be about Australia’s most overrated racehorse. Has had 10 goes at Group 1 level and hasn’t won one, so why would he suddenly get lucky at go eleven?
TEMPLE OF BOOM
On displayed ability to date he’d hardly be only a one kilo inferior horse to Buffering. Best on slow and heavy and he won’t get that going probably.
HAPPY ZERO
Hasn’t scored since 14/3/10 – that’s 27 months. If you hadn’t scored since 14/3/10 why would you think your luck would suddenly change at 3.40pm Brisbane time tomorrow?
PINWHEEL
Has never run in the first two in four goes at Group 1 level, so why would that change tomorrow?
THANKGODYOU’REHERE
Went like a crippled soldier crab in the Doomben 10,000 when beaten half a furlong. Has the rails alley, but they’d need to take the running rail down over the back of the track - and let him cut across the infield if he was to be a chance here on that pathetic Doomben 10,000 effort.
SEA SIREN
The last 3YO filly to win the Stradbroke was La Montagna - bless her heart. She had 48.5 kgs so Sea Siren with 55 kgs has to be a 6.5 kgs – or a stone in the old – better filly. She’s a budding champion if she can carry 55 kgs and win a Stradbroke as a 3YO filly. Well either that, or the others are cumulatively pathetic.
PHELAN READY
Hasn’t won since the Rome Olympics - on 4/4/09. They ought to tear the heritage listed Eagle Farm grandstand down if he wins this. In fact if he wins the race I want Dr Philip Nitschke’s phone number, as there is no use continuing doing these four racing websites – and Philip’s methods beat the Gateway Bridge idea, particularly for those scared of heights.
TIGER TEES
Hasn’t won past 1350 and this is 1400. Won by a wart the other day at 1350 with hardly Group 1 horses like Meet George and Steel Zip finishing right up his clacker.
TRIPLE ELEGANCE
What a little darling he is. Thank God they gelded him, or some fool may have tried to improve the thoroughbred gene pool with him. Last win was way back on 5/3/11 – that’s 15 months – so you’d be entitled to hurl straight yourself off the top floor of the AMP Tower in Sydney if he won.
SPIRIT OF BOOM
I’ve concluded over the years that this horse only lets down properly on a good 3 track – and the track will never be a good 3 when the race is run.
TORIO’S QUEST
Hasn’t won a race for 53 weeks. In fact he’s only started four times in that 53 weeks - and has run last in two of those four efforts.
CELTIC DANCER
 A duck who needs a heavy track. Got one last week and won. Won’t get a heavy track this week and should be flatter than Twiggy this week after that gutbuster seven days ago.
LISTEN SON
Has won only one race since 13/10/10 – that’s 20 months ago – and that was when he won by a nose on 26/11/11, so you’d be filthy if he beat you here.
MID SUMMER MUSIC
Went like a mule in the Doomben 10,000 and was making a respiratory noise all the way up the straight. Justracing can exclusively reveal that the “respiratory noise” was in fact “e-orr, e-orr”. Now that’s a bad sign for a Stradbroke, as the last horse that did than was Black Piranha when he won a Stradbroke – and he’s never won another race since.
SISTINE ANGEL
Another little treasure – not. Boasts a recent second to Black Caviar, so Black Caviar must have had Equine Influenza that day. Last win was way back on 3/10/10 – when she won by a head. That’s so long ago that I don’t even remember who won the Melbourne Cup that year.
VARENNA MISS
Had six starts at Group 1 level for guess how many placings – yep – nil, so why would a leopard suddenly change its spots?
WEALTH PRINCESS
If anyone else tips this mare publicly before the race I’ll have to ring Dr Philip Nitschke early – and will happily miss the race – as I’ll be in heaven when it’s run. Had to have the guts pulled out of her last Saturday with 59.5 kgs on a bog track, so how would she back up in seven days after not looking likely last Saturday? Plus she had 96 weeks off so had serious injuries and on resuming she couldn’t even win a Listed race against all gender horses in the Wangoom. This is a Group 1 against all horses.
SHOPAHOLIC
Contested six consecutive 3YO fillies races before a spell for four wins so that was pretty good. Then on resuming they threw her in the deep end - against all age and all gender horses – and she drowned when running a pathetic fifth to Curtana. Anyone want to be on Curtana to ever start in a Stradbroke – let alone win one?
JETSET LAD (1st emerg)
Ran tenth to Excellantes last start. Want to back Excellantes in a Stradbroke? Me neither, unless it was on Betfair.
PAMPELONNE (2nd emerg)
Never fired a shot in the Doomben 10,000 so why would he here?
MENTAL (3rd emerg)
“They” all thought his run was good last week. I just shook my head. Would hold up the next if he got a run against all age and all gender horses.
SOLZHENITSYN (4th emerg)
Hasn’t won above Group 3 level, so how could he possibly win a Group 1 on debut?
CARRY ME BLUEY (5th emerg)
He now owes me a house, a unit, a wife and a girlfriend. If I lose any more money on him I’m going to instigate a class action against the owners and the trainer. That flood mob of lawyers can handle it.
 
CONCLUSION: Whilst every race has to have a winner - this 2012 Stradbroke winner is well hidden.

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