Brisbane Racing

As was mentioned in the Justracing article, it is my considered opinion that Race 7 at Doomben tomorrow is an “absolute shocker.”

In an endeavor to try to limit the chances in the capacity field of 16 acceptors, I’ll preview this race tonight for website readers.

The race is worth $45,000 in total prizemoney with $28,800 going to the winner and that would take you a long way in a bus.

It is fair to suggest that irrespective of what wins the race, this will be the only Saturday metropolitan win that galloper will ever have on her CV by the time she retires, as none of these will ever win two Saturday city races, unless the race is run in New Delhi, Manila or Astana.

Whilst the race features five last start winners, those wins were all at provincial and country venues – Aspiran (Rockhampton), Easy Play (Murwillumbah), Miss Tennessee (Toowoomba Cushion), Adventurous Angel (Toowoomba Cushion) and Kwilajoy (Ipswich).

Demonstrative of the fact of just how bad the race is - is the fact that 16 of the 18 acceptors are weighted on the limit weight of 53 kilos.

My thoughts on the race are:

HORSE	COMMENT
ASPIRAN	A talented Rockhampton trained sprinting mare with a good record. Her problem is she hasn’t won past 1000 metres and this race is 1100. Will give a lot of cheek. You’d love to own her, as she’s won nine of 20 and she’s run seven placings.
EASY PLAY	Started 20/1 when she won at Murwillumbah last start on a “slow” track. She’s not much good, but nor are any of these scrubbers weighted below her.
BELLETRIST	Ran mid-field behind Inanna on Caloundra Cup day and the effort was okay. Goes up half a kilo only here for a significant class drop. Again, like Aspiran, she hasn’t won past 1000m and this is 1100m.
ROYAL SAINT	Ex New South Wales mare now trained in Brisbane and she’s not much good either, but as least she’s consistent. Bad alley is a worry.
FALLING STAR	She’s had two starts in the last 38 weeks and she’s gone missing in action both times. She ran last the other day but this field is infinitely easier and she’s never missed a place when second up in her life to date. Ran some nice races in July and August of last year, so she’s not hopeless at about a million-to-one in this race, if she can find that form.
FILLE DE NEIGE	Ran second to Inanna two starts back but she’s weak at the end of her races.
AURTOBE	Good grief, this mare actually has a lot of ticker, as she’s won up to 1625 metres. Generally races well fresh, but like a lot of females she dislikes having her photo taken, as she’s only won 4 of 33.
MISS TENNESSEE	A lightly raced filly who won last start and whilst she’s consistent, she’s never won two in a row.
ADVENTUROUS ANGEL	What a great name for a female, so no doubt Michael Hellyer will be thrilled to be throwing a leg over her, but if she can win a Saturday city race, fair dinkum we may as well close the joint down.
BIANCA BLUES	Started 20/1 at Ipswich in a fillies and mares Class 2 race three runs back – so not here.
KOORONG AVENUE	Good grief again, in the space of a few horses. This mare has actually run a place in town – and in old Melbourne town in fact. She should get a standing ovation for such a feat when she walks into the Doomben enclosure tomorrow. However it’s worth remembering that she did fail at Doomben last year. First run for a new stable and she’ll get the gun run from the one alley, in a fast run race. If she can’t run a race first up here for her new trainer, well they may as well leave the front gate open Saturday night.
MISS WINDY WEEPU	What a terrible name. She’s obviously windy, weepy and pu. That’s not very inviting, so I’ll pass.
ANY WONDER	Got beaten in a $4,000 race at Kilcoy last start at even money, in a six horse field, so is it any wonder she’ll be big odds here.
SO DIFFERENT	Obviously ran into a barbed wire fence – as she’s scratched.
KWILAJOY	Won last start but has never won two in a row, or won past 1000 metres, so she’s hard to have.
SWIFT SANDS	Has only won three of 27 and is unlikely to make it four of 28 here.
GO CHLOE	Yeah, Go Chloe, to maybe Julia Creek where there is a meeting tomorrow. You’d be a rough chance out there, where the flies breed like rabbits – even in Winter.
DIVA DANCE	Has a proven record on her CV of winning 8.3% of the time, which conversely means she loses 91.7% of the time, so I’m expecting her to improve on that 91.7% strike rate tomorrow.

CONCLUSION: I’d think I can cull the 18-horse field down to just four of the runners in this Treble/Quadrella/Daily Double leg – Aspiran, Easy Play, Belletrist and Koorang Avenue.

BRISBANE RACING PREVIEW

By Phil Purser

16/07/2010