Today I’ve decided to look at Race 3 at the Doomben meeting tomorrow for readers.
My main reason for doing this race preview is to demonstrate to punters the Herculean job that they are faced with, just to back the winner of an eight horse race - like this one is.
The field has brought together some of the most ordinary conveyances it would be possible to assemble, given that it is an “Open class” race.
The eight acceptors have cumulatively earned $2,525,017 and between them they’ve won 61 races, so you’d expect that it would be a good field, but nothing could be further from the truth.
The topweight and classiest performer is Hard To Catch and he’s a Stradbroke placegetter from yesteryear. He’s won 13 races and $1,177,600 - so the field ranges from having him as topweight to the bottom weighted horse Ram Jam Inn, whose won eight races and just $69,825.
A quick look at the last four runs of each runner shows that there are 11 duck eggs in those 32 starts cumulatively, which means it’s a fact that 34.37% of the time they finish tenth or worse.
Punters need to also watch the Brisbane weather tonight, as thunder in storm clouds is banging around my ears near Ipswich, as I put this up on the web. In fact I risked death from lightning strikes to get this up - so I hope you get something out of it.
My thoughts on the race are:
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HORSE
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COMMENT
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HARD TO CATCH
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Aptly named on recent efforts. Has won one race since 1/11/08 and that was in a photo on 11/3/09. His last half dozen starts form reads 9-12-9-2-10-8. Has only won one of 12 at the distance, so that’s a worry.
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SAM’S EXPRESS
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Went like a mule last start with an inglorious 13th at Caloundra on 17/1/10. The last time he ran so badly was on 24/10/09 when he ran 12th at Doomben, then he stepped out and won at $15 at his next start.
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YASS RIVER
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Has won one race since 18/8/07 and that was when he won at Eagle Farm, in a photo on 14/2/09. Form from his last five runs reads 5-15-12-6-11. Hardly inspiring stuff.
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REBOUNDED
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Ran a Barry Crocker last start, last Saturday when beaten 14.8 lengths, so would need to stage a major form reversal to win this.
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LIGHT RED
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Has won one race since 22/3/08 and that was when he won at Doomben 1/8/09. Beaten 18 lengths two starts back at the Gold Coast. Are you excited?
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STEEL LIPS
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Brisbane’s most overrated galloper, who hasn’t been able to win a race the last 10 times he’s faced the starter.
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RARE DIAMOND
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She’s not much good and in her last 10 starts she’s won just one race – and that was at her last start. Want to back her to now put two together?
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RAM JAM INN
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Has had 10 starts at the track and he’s never run a place at the joint, so obviously he hates Doomben. Three starts back got beaten 14.3 lengths, two starts back at 13.1 lengths. First up here at 1600 metres – even Bart Cummings doesn’t try that one. If this wins, I’ll run naked up the home straight at Doomben, in the warm months, yodelling the National Anthem – and belting myself with a didgeridoo, at a time of my choice, so that there aren’t too many paparazzi around, as you’d hate to read a headline in the paper saying “Stumpy was wrong in his race preview, but true to his word he ran up the Doomben straight.”
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CONCLUSION: If you have a bet in this race, you are “a desperate” who does not deserve to win punting on the day. The race is the first leg of the Extra Double on Unitab, so try to include the Clerk of the Course’s horse, if you are taking one of those suckers, as it could blouse this crew late. If considering betting in this race, please also read my “five hot tips” banner above – it will help your punting out in the long term.
